Union home minister Amit Shah has reportedly said that the ongoing stock market volatility should not be attributed entirely to the ongoing Lok Sabha elections 2024, as volatility in the market is a normal phenomenon. "A drop of 300-400 points after a rise of 1,200-1,300 points is a normal occurrence and happens 15-20 times a year, even without elections," Shah told
Shah, as per NDTV, suggested that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) would retain power, with a seat tally of 400-plus, with Narendra Modi at its helm, which he believes will trigger a rise in stock market. Shah said that the BJP is expected to create ripples in West Bengal, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.
"I can't anticipate stock market moves. But normally whenever a stable government is formed at Centre, the market sees a rally. I see 400-plus seat wins (BJP/NDA), a stable Modi government coming, and thus market rising," Shah had told NDTV in an earlier interview.
Besides, Prime Minister Narendra Modi also recently suggested that the stock market could shatter records in the week of election outcome, as he eyes the third term at office. The "stock market programmers will get tired of the action," he told a news channel while clarifying he has no intent to influence investors.
PhillipCapital in its base case has assumed 290-300 seats for BJP and 330-340 seats for NDA. A bullish scenario of 325-plus BJP seats and 360-plus NDA should result in a sharp rise in equities, the brokerage said on Wednesday.
SAMCO Securities finds just 20 per cent probability of the NDA alliance winning over 400 seats, a strong 70 per cent chance of it retaining power with over 272 seats; and a low 10 per cent outside chance of NDA failing to secure a majority. In the first two scenarios, it sees 2-5 per cent rally on Nifty while in the third case it sees a 10 per cent correction for stock market ahead.
Nikunj Saraf, Vice President at Choice Wealth, who believes surpassing the aspirational mark of 400 for NDA would not be a piece of Cake for NDA, said if the BJP wins over 272 seats and the PM Modi retains the premiership, the market is expected to react positively, particularly if the NDA gets close to 400 seats.