lower turnout in the first three phases of Lok Sabha Elections 2024 are unlikely to alter the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led BJP's expected re-election, said PhillipCapital in its latest note. But while the brokerage noted that it is no expert in predicting the number of seats that BJP or NDA would win, it felt that a 400-plus seat win for NDA is unlikely.
In case, the alliance manages that to reach that number, stock market should rally, the broking firm said.
"If a lower 300-330 seats for the NDA results in a knee jerk market reaction (a fall), we would treat it as a buying opportunity. A further worsening of voter turnout in the following election phases could have a bearing on election outcome and equities – so we would keep a close watch," the domestic brokerage said.
PhillipCapital said the turnout in the first three phases has been a tad lower and while this could affect the outcome for a few constituencies, it is unlikely to majorly dent the widely expected outcome of BJP returning to power.
The turnout for phase 1 stood at 66.1 and phase 2 at 66.7 per cent. The phase 3 saw 64.6 per cent voter turnout against the national average of 67.4 per cent seen in the 2019 elections. Out of the bigger states, Gujarat, Rajasthan, and Tamil Nadu recorded lower turnout vis-a-vis 2019 readings, followed by Kerala and Assam, while Karnataka’s was a tad higher.
As of the end of the third phase, six states/UTs with 244 seats have partially completed voting in 97 constituencies. A total of 10 states/UTs or 113 constituencies have not yet seen voting.
Overall, 260 constituencies are yet to go for voting, including major states like Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal and Bihar.
"In the states where voting has been partially completed, average voter participation shot up in Jammu & Kashmir for 2 of 5 seats where elections were completed, while Maharashtra saw 160bps higher turnout, at 62.6 per cent for the 24 out of 48 seats where voting is over. Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal registered lower voter turnout. Elections for the 4th phase (96 constituencies), 5th phase (49), 6th phase (57) and 7th phase (57) are scheduled on 13th May/20th May/25th May/1st June and the verdict will be out on 4th June,"
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