eyes are on the counting of votes of the Lok Sabha elections 2024 that will take place on Tuesday, June 4. Several exit polls have projected Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to retain power for the third time with more than 350 seats.
The exit polls have predicted a much better performance from 73-year-old Modi-led ruling coalition this time than the 2019 tally. The Bharatiya Janata Party is predicted to improve its performance in southern India, continue dominance in the Hindi heartland states including Uttar Pradesh, and even surpass Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress in her bastion West Bengal. The pollsters have predicted that the BJP is set to upset Naveen Patnaik's Biju Janata Dal in his bastion Odisha with a strong performance.
No other political party except the Indian National Congress has won more than 400 seats in India's electoral politics.
However, if you believe that the exit poll projections will exactly translate into results on Tuesday, you are mistaken. The exit polls are just predictions and not 100 per cent correct.
There have been instances when the exit polls have gone horribly wrong, the classic example being 2004 when the pollsters had predicted an NDA victory due to ‘India Shining’ campaign. Contrary to the exit polls, the BJP saw its tally reduced from 182 to 138 while the Congress with 145 seats went on to stitch an alliance with non-BJP parties and the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) came into existence.
A recent example of the exit polls being proved wrong was in 2021 when the Trinamool Congress under Mamata Banerjee had stunned pollsters by winning 215 out of 294 seats. The BJP had bagged 77 seats.
In the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the exit polls had correctly read the mood of the nation in favour of Narendra Modi. The BJP had won 282 in 2014 while it improved five years later with 303 seats.
What did opposition say on exit polls?
The opposition INDIA bloc has dismissed the exit polls, calling it ‘orchestrated’ by the BJP.
"We have to wait, just wait and see. We are very hopeful that our results are completely opposite to what the exit polls are showing," Congress veteran Sonia Gandhi told PTI on Monday.
West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee said,"We had seen how the exit polls were conducted in 2016, 2019 and 2021. None of the predictions had turned out to be true. These exit polls were manufactured at home by some people two months back for the media consumption. They have no value."
Whether the exit poll predictions are true or an upset is on the cards, it will be known at 8 am on Tuesday when the counting of votes begins.
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